Saturday, 28 September 2013

Portfolio 28/09/13 and market vernacular

Metro Baltic Horizons and the legal certainty ;

  Just to re-iterate for the new investor . This company received an offer from the the old BOD , trying to gain back control . It didn`t work and our present Board , led by one Ronan Reid has stood firm . Promising returns are expected over the course of the next few months , as the court case finalises and overdue payment is approached .
  Valuation ? As the present value in cash is approximately 18.7p ,what will the court victory add ? Worst case is a doubling of that 18.7p , or equal of 37.4p (pretty close to my original estimation . Best case scenario ,would take the share price to just under 80p . Dependant on getting a result above usual International cases of 17.5 % , mildly likely , as this is more of a local court ( Isle of Man ).
  One minor issue is personally I have gone above my 30% threshold , to 33% on this one . Still , the devil is in the detail . I shall not be adding anymore to the portfolio from here .
  MET  Strong Buy .

Rurelec and the long wait :

  As usual Mr Market makes us by testing our patience . A difficult one for the more testosterone fuelled among us . Patience pays the amount due will come in due course .
 Valuation  ?  Standing at present just above 11p . Expect a gentle upturn from around this point , I assume this one will not hugely increase , due to current spendthrift BOD . One can ascertain that the value will go up with investment though , Chile and Peru are a good long term investment choice ( for now ) . Expecting as of current news , an increase of up to 31p per share .
  RUR  Buy

Oxus  the oscillating one ;

  Having been caught out by Mr Market several times by this one . Times haven`t changed . But , the view remains the same .
  Valuation  ?  The Chinese have valued this at 11.2p . I see no reason that will not be the result ,when the paint dries on the final signatures . Although personal confidence has waxed and waned with this one , especially after Metal Tech Ltd `s clear victory in court . Seeing the price peak above 2p in the last few weeks has increased confidence five fold , I have been adding continually and now stand pretty close to the limit of 30 %
  OXS   Buy
  Churcill  Mining  the new kid

  Been invested only about a year on this one . Market watch to be kept very closely , seems to have settled at around double value from 10 to 20p . One would assume buying at under 15p would give a nice long term result .
   Valuation  ?  Just over £1 , would be quite amicable for all parties . Of course this may lessen with dilution that will probably occur ,if the court case runs to over 2.6 years ( the norm ).
   CHL Hold

  Have an interest in PAL , PFP and GRZ . All have a long patient road ahead .
I have not forgotten that share that a recommendation to buy was coming forthwith . Patience , ye olde blog friends . Still in the process of assimilating a folder on it .


  Market view ;
 FTSE ( Buy )
   Still expecting a rise of up to 7200 on the FTSE by the end of the year . That may still occur , since a holding pattern well above 6000 has established . One would anticipate 6300 , as the next bounce off point .
  Gold / Silver  ( Buy )
      Seeing as $1300 , has been tested a couple of times now . One would anticipate a long shallow trend to the upside to resume .
    Addendum ; Am I too bullish ?  Perhaps , and yet ,  if you look at world valuations , then the upside case is still well intact ,  " for now ".

    Good luck and may your Prophet go with you

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